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Voter Registration and Get-Out-the-Vote
Following are the preliminary state results for SVREP’s nonpartisan VR and GOTV work. The results comprise SVREP efforts in 24 community clusters across 8 states. These 24 GOTV projects were the result of consolidating 35 voter registration projects. Three other SVREP projects in Sacramento and San Joaquin Valley, California, and Price, Utah did not continue on with GOTV.
SVREP projects registered 19.966 voters and turned out a grand total of 70,114 new registrations and first time Latino gubernatorial voters according to our preliminary counts. Those not registered in this cycle were registered after 2000, with the exception of New Mexico, Utah, and Florida. In New Mexico and Utah they were registered after 1998. In Florida, they were all registered within the last six months.
An audit of these results will be conducted once the data is available on computer tape.
Latino Vote 2002 was perhaps the most comprehensive SVREP effort to date. Through 1996, SVREP focused on voter registration. Subsequent years successively incorporated more and more sophisticated GOTV efforts. In 2002, both strategies were effectively blended into a seamless campaign that culminated in 272,760 calls and visits that contacted nearly 119,751 Latino voters and turned out 58.5% of them (70,114). Another 117,000 calls were conducted through a partnership with Rock the Vote. The results of those calls are unavailable still.
This rate of turnout is substantially higher than that of all voter or Latino voter turnout in the selected states. For example, in Texas while SVREP turned out 61.9% of its contacted targets, all Texas voters turned out at 39% and all Latino voters turned out at 32.8%, according to a statewide turnout study conducted by the William C. Velasquez Institute (WCVI). In California, while SVREP turned out 55.8% of its contacted targets, all California voters turned out at 50% and all Latino voters turned out at 43.5%, again, according to WCVI. For more information, check their website at www.wcvi.org.
WCVI Study on Latino Turnout in CA
For more detailed information on SVREP local efforts, see the following comprehensive spreadsheet.
Preliminary Results of local SVREP GOTV efforts: Latino Vote 2002 |
St |
County |
Community |
Relevant Juris. |
Total Universe |
Gross Calls |
Contacts |
%TO Con |
Votes |
State Total |
AZ |
Maricopa |
Phoenix Metro |
CD 2 & 4 |
15,742 |
28,664 |
8,240 |
44.60% |
3,678 |
|
AZ |
Coconino |
Flagstaff |
CD 1 |
5,000 |
9,945 |
3,738 |
44.30% |
1,655 |
|
AZ |
Pima |
Tucson |
CD7 |
10,154 |
33,339 |
13,537 |
53.80% |
7,282 |
12,615 |
CA |
Riverside/Imperial |
Coach./Imp. Valley |
AD80 |
12,597 |
13,207 |
7,272 |
55.50% |
4,039 |
|
CA |
San Diego |
S. Bay |
28,704 |
6,454 |
3,793 |
44.20% |
1,675 |
||
CA |
Los Angeles |
Los Angeles |
LAUSD |
33,276 |
59,045 |
30,477 |
57.30% |
17,460 |
23,174 |
CO |
Pueblo |
Pueblo |
Pueblo |
1,871 |
4,824 |
2,024 |
57.40% |
1,162 |
|
CO |
Weld |
Greeley |
Greeley |
4,433 |
1,028 |
635 |
73.50% |
467 |
|
CO |
Denver |
Denver |
Denver |
10,387 |
1,312 |
547 |
32.50% |
178 |
1,807 |
FL |
Dade |
Southern County |
CD25 |
8,259 |
8,752 |
3,801 |
92.30% |
3,508 |
|
FL |
Palm Beach/Broward |
CD22 |
8,700 |
19,749 |
4,938 |
84.50% |
4,172 |
7,680 |
|
NM |
Bernalillo |
CD2 |
28,357 |
20,874 |
10,046 |
54.30% |
5,452 |
5,452 |
|
NV |
Clark |
Las Vegas |
CD2 |
12,198 |
10,343 |
6,867 |
59.90% |
4,111 |
4,111 |
TX |
Bexar |
CD23,20.28 |
25,129 |
15,125 |
6,841 |
56.30% |
3,853 |
||
TX |
Val Verde |
Del Rio |
CD23 |
1,830 |
1,788 |
875 |
83.00% |
726 |
|
TX |
Maverick |
Eagle Pass |
CD23 |
2,224 |
2,188 |
938 |
29.70% |
279 |
|
TX |
Travis |
East Austin |
E. Austin |
6,781 |
5,407 |
2,142 |
44.40% |
950 |
|
TX |
Brewster |
Alpine |
CD23 |
568 |
327 |
167 |
61.10% |
102 |
|
TX |
Webb |
Laredo |
CD23 |
7,174 |
4,914 |
2,172 |
67.90% |
1,475 |
|
TX |
Culberson/Dimmit |
Van Horn/Carrizo |
CD23 |
437 |
281 |
81 |
65.40% |
53 |
|
TX |
Harris |
Com. Pct 2 |
25,368 |
22,754 |
8,614 |
70.60% |
6,080 |
13,518 |
|
UT |
Salt Lake City |
Salt Lake City |
CD 2 |
3,488 |
2,440 |
2,006 |
87.60% |
1,757 |
1,757 |
Total |
252,677 |
272,760 |
119,751 |
58.50% |
70,114 |
Analysis
Despite their losses, Democrats gained significant ground in the rust belt with gubernatorial victories in Illinois, Michigan and Pennsylvania. They also consolidated their control of California by shutting out the Republicans from all statewide offices, while maintaining dominating majorities in the state legislature. Control of these votes and political resource rich states will constitute a pillar of Democratic policy and political strategy in the coming elections.
Democrats also won Governorships in Arizona and New Mexico, owing, in part to big Latino mobilizations. This was true, though to a lesser extent, in California as well. In fact, Latino performance in the southwest was both big and heavily democratic, even in Texas and Colorado. This trend is counter to Latino voter performance in New York and Florida where the data seems to show important Republican inroads among non-Cuban Latinos.
An important asterisk is the role of election reform in Arizona. The new public financing law “clean elections” appears to have leveled the playing field for Democrat Napolitano (and other Democrats), as well as stimulated greater Latino participation (owing to the plethora of Latino candidates).
On the face of it, we can explain these trends in various ways:
1) Increased Turnout: Latino voters in the rust-belt and southwest responded well to multifaceted voter mobilization campaigns from Latino organizations, Labor, Churches, campaigns, etc; Particularly in urban and border counties with competitive federal legislative elections, preliminary data generally shows significantly higher turnout compared to 1998.
The following table shows the county results for selected counties that included targeted Congressional and Senate races. Fourteen out of sixteen counties showed significant increases in rate of turnout and raw number of votes cast compared to 1998. Selected counties in Texas, Arizona and Nevada show dramatic improvements. Specific CD’s were targeted within these counties by SVREP, as well as other efforts for GOTV activities. SVREP GOTV results shown above provide more depth to this analysis. |
| State | County | Total Voters 98 General | Votes Cast 98 General | Turn Out 98 General | Total Voters 02 General | Votes Cast 02 General | 1998-2002 Change | Turn Out 02 General | 1998-2002 % Change in TO |
| AZ | Coconino | 60,406 | 28,940 | 47.9% | 63,670 | 35,285 | 6,345 | 55.4% | 21.9% |
| AZ | Maricopa | 1,345,370 | 586,090 | 43.6% | 1,314,626 | 723,867 | 137,777 | 55.1% | 23.5% |
| AZ | Pima | 383,096 | 195,580 | 51.1% | 355,267 | 232,564 | 36,984 | 65.5% | 18.9% |
| CO | Denver | 346,908 | 160,431 | 46.2% | 339,876 | 149,482 | -10,949 | 44.0% | -6.8% |
| CO | Pueblo | 82,551 | 45,330 | 54.9% | 87,161 | 48,157 | 2,827 | 55.3% | 6.2% |
| CO | Weld | 91,156 | 46,644 | 51.2% | 108,745 | 55,630 | 8,986 | 51.2% | 19.3% |
| NM | Bernalillo | 293,393 | 162,484 | 55.4% | 298,527 | 144,937 | -17,547 | 48.6% | -10.8% |
| NV | Clark | 562,641 | 257,601 | 45.8% | 547,758 | 313,605 | 56,004 | 57.3% | 21.7% |
| TX | Bexar | 818,370 | 38,143 | 4.7% | 884,103 | 83,417 | 45,274 | 9.4% | 118.7% |
| TX | Brewster | 5,660 | 2,222 | 39.3% | 5,963 | 3,715 | 1,493 | 62.3% | 67.2% |
| TX | Culberson | 2,196 | 437 | 19.9% | 2,075 | 780 | 343 | 37.6% | 78.5% |
| TX | Dimmit | 8,582 | 1,588 | 18.5% | 7,974 | 3,532 | 1,944 | 44.3% | 122.4% |
| TX | Maverick | 20,623 | 4,604 | 22.3% | 24,120 | 9,268 | 4,664 | 38.4% | 101.3% |
| TX | Val Verde | 22,494 | 7,251 | 32.2% | 25,524 | 10,806 | 3,555 | 42.3% | 49.0% |
| TX | Webb | 79,392 | 15,788 | 19.9% | 93,451 | 64,640 | 48,852 | 69.2% | 309.4% |
| TX | Zavala | 8,580 | 3,212 | 37.4% | 8,225 | 3,529 | 317 | 42.9% | 9.9% |
| Total | 4,131,418 | 1,556,345 | 37.7% | 4,167,065 | 1,883,214 | 326,869 | 45.2% | 21.0% |
2) Latino Partisanship in the Southwest: The Democrats fielded better candidates with adequate resources like Bill Richardson, Janet Napolitano, and Tony Sanchez. They excited Latino voters to higher levels of participation. Experienced Latino voters with deeper roots in the electorate were not persuaded by Republican outreach campaigns that were heavy on symbolism but light on substance.
Preliminary data from exit surveys shows heavy Democratic performance among Latinos. For example, Exit polls by the Albuquerque journal showed that Bill Richardson received 72% of the Latino vote in the Bernalillo county metro area, while Exit polls by the William C. Velasquez Institute found that Tony Sanchez received 87% of the Latino vote. Democrats in Texas averaged 76%-87% of the Latino vote, reversing a trend towards increased greater Latino Republican performance in 1998 and 2000. For more information on Latino voting trends see the William C. Velasquez Institute website at www.wcvi.org.
3) Latino Partisanship in the Northeast and Southeast: Republican incumbents Pataki and Bush in New York and Florida effectively co-opted Democratic and or Latino issues related to the state budget and Vieques (New York). They utilized symbolic campaign tactics (like use of Spanish) to gain support among relatively neophyte Puerto Rican voters (Florida).
In my next report I will provide more in-depth analysis of Latino turnout and opinion patterns, as well as discuss SVREP’s media efforts.
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© Copyright 2004, Southwest Voter Registration Education Project
